Updated on Thursday 28 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 98913 (+693) 1680913 (+18611) 384902 (+5745) 1197098 (+12173)
United Kingdom 37130 (+134) 266599 (+4052) 1161 (+0) 228308 (+3918)
Italy 32955 (+78) 230555 (+397) 144658 (+2677) 52942 (-2358)
France 28533 (+73) 182847 (-220) 65997 (+680) 88317 (-973)
Spain 27117 (+283) 236259 (+859) 150376 (+0) 58766 (+576)
Brazil 24512 (+1039) 391222 (+16324) 158593 (+4760) 208117 (+10525)
Belgium 9334 (+22) 57455 (+113) 15320 (+23) 32801 (+68)
Germany 8372 (+63) 181200 (+600) 161967 (+768) 10861 (-231)
Mexico 8134 (+501) 74560 (+3455) 51708 (+2256) 14718 (+698)
Iran 7508 (+57) 139511 (+1787) 109437 (+1724) 22566 (+6)
Canada 6753 (+98) 88090 (+971) 45352 (+701) 35985 (+172)
Netherlands 5875 (+26) 45780 (+133) 174 (+0) 39731 (+107)
China 4638 (+0) 84103 (+1) 79358 (+6) 107 (-5)
Turkey 4397 (+28) 158762 (+948) 121507 (+1492) 32858 (-572)
India 4344 (+172) 150793 (+5843) 64277 (+3571) 82172 (+2100)
Sweden 4125 (+96) 34440 (+597) 4971 (+0) 25344 (+501)
Russia 3807 (+174) 362342 (+8915) 131129 (+12331) 227406 (-3590)
Peru 3788 (+159) 129751 (+5772) 52906 (+1957) 73057 (+3656)
Ecuador 3203 (+0) 37355 (+0) 18003 (+0) 16149 (+0)
Switzerland 1915 (+2) 30761 (+15) 28200 (+0) 646 (+13)
Ireland 1615 (+9) 24735 (+37) 21060 (+0) 2060 (+28)
Indonesia 1418 (+27) 23165 (+415) 5877 (+235) 15870 (+153)
Portugal 1342 (+12) 31007 (+219) 18096 (+274) 11569 (-67)
Romania 1216 (+11) 18429 (+146) 11874 (+244) 5339 (-109)
Pakistan 1197 (+30) 57705 (+1356) 18314 (+832) 38194 (+494)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 345815 (+4221) 5505523 (+94564) 2207598 (+55212)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 346793 ( +2639) 5532369 ( +76520) 2266521 ( +61716)
Thu 28 May 2020 349266 ( +2473) 5606173 ( +73804) 2327903 ( +61382)
Fri 29 May 2020 351580 ( +2313) 5677182 ( +71009) 2388733 ( +60830)
Sat 30 May 2020 353740 ( +2160) 5745338 ( +68156) 2448800 ( +60067)
Sun 31 May 2020 355752 ( +2013) 5810607 ( +65268) 2507900 ( +59101)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84103 (+1) 79358 (+6)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 4626 ( +0) 84061 ( +1) 78236 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4626 ( +0) 84062 ( +0) 78236 ( +0)
Fri 29 May 2020 4626 ( +0) 84062 ( +0) 78236 ( +0)
Sat 30 May 2020 4626 ( +0) 84063 ( +0) 78237 ( +0)
Sun 31 May 2020 4626 ( +0) 84063 ( +0) 78237 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 27117 (+283) 236259 (+859) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 27981 ( +27) 231984 ( +103) 152503 ( +332)
Thu 28 May 2020 28005 ( +24) 232076 ( +92) 152796 ( +293)
Fri 29 May 2020 28026 ( +21) 232159 ( +82) 153054 ( +258)
Sat 30 May 2020 28045 ( +19) 232233 ( +74) 153282 ( +228)
Sun 31 May 2020 28062 ( +17) 232299 ( +66) 153483 ( +201)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 32955 (+78) 230555 (+397) 144658 (+2677)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 32670 ( +50) 228676 ( +215) 145287 ( +1734)
Thu 28 May 2020 32716 ( +46) 228872 ( +196) 146943 ( +1656)
Fri 29 May 2020 32759 ( +42) 229051 ( +179) 148523 ( +1580)
Sat 30 May 2020 32797 ( +38) 229213 ( +162) 150028 ( +1505)
Sun 31 May 2020 32832 ( +35) 229361 ( +148) 151460 ( +1432)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 37130 (+134) 266599 (+4052) 1161 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 37048 ( +135) 258367 ( +1036) 1466 ( +42)
Thu 28 May 2020 37171 ( +123) 259322 ( +954) 1509 ( +43)
Fri 29 May 2020 37282 ( +111) 260200 ( +878) 1554 ( +45)
Sat 30 May 2020 37383 ( +101) 261008 ( +808) 1600 ( +46)
Sun 31 May 2020 37474 ( +91) 261750 ( +743) 1647 ( +47)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 98913 (+693) 1680913 (+18611) 384902 (+5745)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 99047 ( +600) 1668380 ( +15102) 387652 ( +10707)
Thu 28 May 2020 99596 ( +549) 1683008 ( +14628) 398414 ( +10763)
Fri 29 May 2020 100098 ( +502) 1697171 ( +14163) 409226 ( +10812)
Sat 30 May 2020 100557 ( +458) 1710877 ( +13707) 420079 ( +10853)
Sun 31 May 2020 100974 ( +417) 1724138 ( +13261) 430968 ( +10888)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 28533 (+73) 182847 (-220) 65997 (+680)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 28505 ( +44) 182696 ( +58) 65381 ( +246)
Thu 28 May 2020 28545 ( +40) 182742 ( +46) 65607 ( +226)
Fri 29 May 2020 28581 ( +36) 182779 ( +37) 65814 ( +207)
Sat 30 May 2020 28613 ( +32) 182808 ( +30) 66003 ( +189)
Sun 31 May 2020 28641 ( +29) 182832 ( +24) 66176 ( +173)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 8372 (+63) 181200 (+600) 161967 (+768)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 8108 ( +9) 179295 ( +159) 161114 ( +523)
Thu 28 May 2020 8116 ( +8) 179439 ( +144) 161603 ( +488)
Fri 29 May 2020 8122 ( +7) 179569 ( +131) 162058 ( +456)
Sat 30 May 2020 8128 ( +6) 179688 ( +118) 162484 ( +425)
Sun 31 May 2020 8134 ( +5) 179795 ( +107) 162881 ( +397)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 5875 (+26) 45780 (+133) 174 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 5826 ( +7) 44754 ( +33) 231 ( +8)
Thu 28 May 2020 5832 ( +7) 44784 ( +30) 239 ( +8)
Fri 29 May 2020 5838 ( +6) 44810 ( +26) 247 ( +8)
Sat 30 May 2020 5843 ( +5) 44834 ( +24) 256 ( +9)
Sun 31 May 2020 5848 ( +5) 44855 ( +21) 265 ( +9)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 9334 (+22) 57455 (+113) 15320 (+23)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 9316 ( +15) 55431 ( +40) 15268 ( +43)
Thu 28 May 2020 9329 ( +13) 55467 ( +36) 15307 ( +39)
Fri 29 May 2020 9341 ( +12) 55500 ( +32) 15342 ( +35)
Sat 30 May 2020 9351 ( +10) 55529 ( +29) 15374 ( +32)
Sun 31 May 2020 9360 ( +9) 55555 ( +26) 15403 ( +29)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 4125 (+96) 34440 (+597) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 4080 ( +32) 34616 ( +371) 5050 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4111 ( +31) 34969 ( +353) 5050 ( +0)
Fri 29 May 2020 4140 ( +29) 35304 ( +336) 5050 ( +0)
Sat 30 May 2020 4168 ( +28) 35623 ( +318) 5050 ( +0)
Sun 31 May 2020 4194 ( +26) 35924 ( +302) 5050 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 1024 (+17) 22074 (+443) 10020 (+744)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 1023 ( +8) 22186 ( +304) 9540 ( +141)
Thu 28 May 2020 1031 ( +8) 22478 ( +292) 9671 ( +131)
Fri 29 May 2020 1038 ( +7) 22758 ( +280) 9792 ( +121)
Sat 30 May 2020 1045 ( +7) 23025 ( +267) 9904 ( +112)
Sun 31 May 2020 1051 ( +7) 23280 ( +255) 10006 ( +103)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 1915 (+2) 30761 (+15) 28200 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 1899 ( +1) 30507 ( +3) 27367 ( +14)
Thu 28 May 2020 1900 ( +1) 30510 ( +3) 27379 ( +12)
Fri 29 May 2020 1901 ( +1) 30512 ( +3) 27389 ( +10)
Sat 30 May 2020 1901 ( +1) 30515 ( +2) 27398 ( +9)
Sun 31 May 2020 1902 ( +0) 30517 ( +2) 27406 ( +8)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 24512 (+1039) 391222 (+16324) 158593 (+4760)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 25137 ( +836) 412699 ( +18264) 178921 ( +10738)
Thu 28 May 2020 25957 ( +819) 431196 ( +18497) 190344 ( +11423)
Fri 29 May 2020 26758 ( +801) 449875 ( +18679) 202497 ( +12152)
Sat 30 May 2020 27538 ( +780) 468684 ( +18809) 215425 ( +12928)
Sun 31 May 2020 28296 ( +758) 487569 ( +18885) 229179 ( +13754)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 7508 (+57) 139511 (+1787) 109437 (+1724)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 27 May 2020 7394 ( +25) 141897 ( +2068) 99816 ( +272)
Thu 28 May 2020 7417 ( +23) 143917 ( +2020) 100065 ( +250)
Fri 29 May 2020 7439 ( +22) 145881 ( +1963) 100295 ( +230)
Sat 30 May 2020 7459 ( +20) 147781 ( +1901) 100506 ( +211)
Sun 31 May 2020 7478 ( +19) 149613 ( +1832) 100700 ( +194)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.